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ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE NUMBER OF BIRTHS AND THE HOUSING AVAILABILITY INDEX BASED ON SELECTED COUNTIES IN POLAND
Jakub SMYK 1, Tomasz HERUDZIŃSKI2
Publication language: English
scientific paper
Guests Editors of the Issue Tomasz Herudziński, Wojciech Mincewicz
Transformations No. 4(127)2025, Publication date: 30 December 2025
Keywords: Housing affordability, housing market, fertility, housing policy, urban counties, number of births, housing affordability index
Abstract In its introductory theoretical section, which serves as a reference to the subject literature, the article examines the relationship between housing conditions and fertility, framing housing as an important element of social, economic, and cul-tural capital. It indicates that access to housing—both ownership and the ability to use a dwelling independently—constitutes one of the key factors influencing deci-sions about starting a family as well as having the first and subsequent children. It is emphasized that delayed departure of young adults from the parental home and diffi-culties in the real estate market (high prices, low share of rental housing, limited access to mortgage loans) correlate with low fertility, particularly in familistic cultures where housing ownership is perceived as a condition of adulthood and responsibility. In the international perspective, the article points to a sustained trend of declining fertility and the differences arising from diverse cultural, institutional, and political contexts. The specificity of the Polish housing market additionally hinders young adults in attaining housing independence, making housing one of the key determinants of reproductive plans. The empirical aim of the article is to assess the relationship between housing affordability and the number of births at the county level in Poland in 2010–2023. Based on data from Statistics Poland (GUS), a new Housing Affordability Index (HAI) was developed, grounded in real, inflation-adjusted gross wages in the national economy and the median transaction prices per square meter. The analysis covered 101 counties representing urban housing mar-kets, divided into regional capitals, suburban counties, and county-level towns.
A graduate of the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw, Poland
ORCID: 0009-0001-4695-3582
E-mail: jakub.smyk.1996@gmail.com
Department of Sociology, Institute of Sociological Sciences and Pedagogy, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Poland
ORCID: 0000-0002-4102-2957
E-mail: tomasz_herudzinski@sggw.edu.pl